# Suppose 1 in 25 adults is afflicted with a disease for which

Suppose 1 in 25 adults is afflicted with a disease for which a new diagnostic test has been developed. Given that an individual actually has the disease, a positive test result will occur with probability .99. Given that an individual does not have the disease, a negative test result will occur with probability .98.

Use a probability tree to answer the following questions.

| Disease | No Disease |

Probability of disease | 0.04 | 0.96 |

Test Positive | 0.99 | 0.02 |

Test Negative | 0.01 | 0.98 |

Question 1. What is the probability of a positive test result?

Question 2. If a randomly selected adult is tested and the result is positive, what is the probability that the individual has the disease?

Question 3. If a randomly selected adult is tested and the result is negative, what is the probability that the individual does not have the disease?

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