I’ve looked at your Lac Leman and EcoSecurities case submissions and wanted to send you extensive feedback AND check in about the rest your outstanding assignments.
As for Lac Leman, you’ve made great progress, however what’s missing is the properly filled out decision matrix. I see an attempt at this on your ‘Sheet 3’, but that’s not exactly what I’m looking for.
The goal of the decision matrix is to inform your decision, and really tell you which decision to make. As such it wants to contain everything that you consider important. The structure of the decision matrix is as follows:
- The alternatives should be clearly delineated across the top. It this case you would choose your two values of possible DVDs to produce (4436 and 3549) plus the no go alternative. Don’t label them Alt 1, Alt 2, etc. Be as clear and as detailed as possible.
- Next, along the left side, you list your criteria. I’d like these to include TBL considerations as well as risk. So, maybe its profitability, environmental impact, social impact (e.g. customer satisfaction) and then something around risk (however you want to define it. Again, be specific and note, the criteria should derive from stakeholder values.
- Then figure out your weights. How important is each criteria to your overall decision? These should sum to 100%.
- Next, score each alternative on each criteria 1..5. So, how does each alternative perform on profitability? On environmental impact? (Note here, the no go alternative probably has the highest environmental score!)
- Finally combine the weights and the scores to determine an aggregate score for each alternative. And then, your decision should be the alternative with the highest score. (And here note that if this isn’t true, i.e. if you don’t like the answer, it suggests you’re missing a criteria or your weights might be wrong). For further reference I’d suggest you rewatch the class from Oct 9th where I went through this in detail.
For Ecosecurities, same situation – I’m not seeing a decision matrix and it is unclear to me what your alternatives are. I see some discussion on the ‘Alternatives’ sheet (note I renamed your sheets), but I’d like more of the quantitative details. As described above, please create a decision matrix that includes TBL type criteria and use that to inform your decision.
Additionally for Ecosecurities, I see that your simulations are different scenarios that could happen, but not different alternatives that Bruce (the decision maker) can choose between. If you're going to include different simulations (which is great to do), they should describe different alternatives.
Also, the format of your pro-forma model isn’t how I’d like to see it. Not only is your approach non traditional and a little difficult to follow, there are at least a few errors. As previously mentioned, I would suggest that you first complete the ‘Magic Box’ example from the course page. I strongly encourage you to use that format and my intent with having you do that assignment was for you to get that working, and then replicate it for Ecosecurities. There are also examples of this format in the book notes as well as the MC analysis screencast.
What you started in the ‘Orig Model’ is really close, keep this going. And let Excel do the calculations for you. In many places you’ve typed in numbers where there should be formulas.
And, I strongly encourage you to use a data table for your simulation results instead of replicating your model many times. There’s a screencast in week 8 that demonstrates how to create one.
For Lac Leman and EcoSecurities I’ve included additional comments in the files I’ll return shortly on the course page. I need you to take another pass at both to get to at least 80%.
Also, I think I’m still missing updates on your Which Power Plant and DHL shipping cases, along with IA#6 and the makeup work from the missed class. As with above, please make sure to include a properly filled out decision matrix as part of each case submission.
Please let me know if you have any questions or need any additional guidance. If you’d like to chat about any of this, I’m happy to setup a collaborate session or similar.